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	<title>Title and Escrow News</title>
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	<link>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog</link>
	<description>Title and Escrow News</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Wed, 16 May 2012 17:26:02 +0000</lastBuildDate>
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		<title>Quick Tips For Gaining Referrals</title>
		<link>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/05/16/quick-tips-for-gaining-referrals/</link>
		<comments>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/05/16/quick-tips-for-gaining-referrals/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 May 2012 17:26:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Vickie Lawrence</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/?p=143</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Quick Tips For Gaining Referrals In a nutshell – here is how to gain more referrals: 1.      Have a sales philosophy that emphasizes relationship building. 2.      Value the relationship more than you do making your quota. 3.      Consider yourself and your Company as the best at what you do. 4.      Achieve a perfect job of [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong><em>Quick Tips For Gaining Referrals</em></strong></p>
<p>In a nutshell – here is how to gain more referrals:</p>
<p>1.      Have a sales philosophy that emphasizes relationship building.</p>
<p>2.      Value the relationship more than you do making your quota.</p>
<p>3.      Consider yourself and your Company as <strong>the best</strong> at what you do.</p>
<p>4.      Achieve a perfect job of delivering what you promised, when you promised it.</p>
<p>5.      Provide absolutely impeccable service after the sale.</p>
<p>6.      Help the customer build their business.</p>
<p>7.      Think end-of-time friendships, not end-of-month totals.</p>
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		<title>First Annual Kid&#8217;s Art Show!</title>
		<link>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/05/09/first-annual-kids-art-show/</link>
		<comments>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/05/09/first-annual-kids-art-show/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 May 2012 16:00:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Julie Cooper</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/?p=139</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amy Burnett and local artists are joining with Bremerton School District to bring the First Annual Kid&#8217;s Art Show to downtown Bremerton at First Friday, June 1st from 5:00 to 8:00. Young artists will proudly display their interpretation of this year&#8217;s theme &#8220;Where The Sea Meets The Beach&#8221;. First, Second and Third Prizes will be awarded in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Amy Burnett and local artists are joining with Bremerton School District to bring the First Annual Kid&#8217;s Art Show to downtown Bremerton at First Friday, June 1st from 5:00 to 8:00. Young artists will proudly display their interpretation of this year&#8217;s theme &#8220;Where The Sea Meets The Beach&#8221;. First, Second and Third Prizes will be awarded in three age categories and each artist will receive special recognition. If you have a child K-5 in Bremerton School District, please have them ask their Teacher for rules or see below for submission requirements.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Kids-Art-Show.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-140" title="Kids Art Show" src="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Kids-Art-Show.jpg" alt="" width="429" height="640" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Change for a Cause&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/05/02/change-for-a-cause/</link>
		<comments>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/05/02/change-for-a-cause/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 May 2012 19:51:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kelsey Kilen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/?p=133</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center;"><a href="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Realy-Penny-Drive-Blog-Post.jpg"><img class="aligncenter  wp-image-131" title="Relay Penny Drive- Blog Post" src="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/05/Realy-Penny-Drive-Blog-Post-881x1024.jpg" alt="" width="529" height="614" /></a></p>
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		<title>PACIFIC NW TITLE IS GETTING INVOLVED TO HELP MAKE A DIFFERENCE IN THE FIGHT FOR CANCER</title>
		<link>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/04/18/pacific-nw-title-is-getting-involved-to-help-make-a-difference-in-the-fight-for-cancer/</link>
		<comments>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/04/18/pacific-nw-title-is-getting-involved-to-help-make-a-difference-in-the-fight-for-cancer/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Apr 2012 00:02:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Mindy Teigen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Community Involvement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kitsap Title & Escrow Companies]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/?p=120</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As most of you know, Relay For Life is a fun-filled overnight event designed to celebrate survivorship and raise money for research and programs for the American Cancer Society. Their mission statement has held strong and true in saying: &#8220;The American Cancer Society is the nationwide, community based, voluntary health organization dedicated to eliminating cancer as a major [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: left;">As most of you know, Relay For Life is a fun-filled overnight event designed to celebrate survivorship and raise money for research and programs for the American Cancer Society. Their mission statement has held strong and true in saying:</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">&#8220;The American Cancer Society is the nationwide, community based, voluntary health organization dedicated to eliminating cancer as a major health problem by preventing cancer, saving lives, and diminishing suffering from cancer, through research, education, advocacy, and service.&#8221; </p>
<p style="text-align: left;">The reality is that half of all men, and 1/3 of women will develop cancer in their lifetime. The amount of passion, commitment, and involvement to raise funds and walk for relay speak for itself. We have come together for one common goal to make this a meaningful, and truly priceless event that cannot be measured. The impact in the support shown is huge! From local businesses, to our community leaders and people of all walks of life. Many of our lives have been forever changed by a loved one or friend who has experienced or is currently going through a battle with cancer. At the forefront of an ever-changing world, we continue to bring hope to other&#8217;s in supporting the cause.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">In the past we&#8217;ve participated in Relay For Life on other&#8217;s teams, but felt deeply about supporting the cause to fight back by starting our very own Relay For Life Team this year! We will be participating in the Poulsbo/Bainbridge Island Relay For Life, which will take place at the North Kitsap High School Stadium, at 6:00 pm on June 22nd, until 12:00 noon on June 23rd. We will continue supporting surrounding areas in CK and SK, by joining various teams and donating a portion of our fundraising to those areas as we have always in years past.</p>
<p style="text-align: left;">There are so many ways to participate such as; walking, sponsoring activities, helping set-up booths and campsites, fundraising, donating goods and wares for raffle drawings, or simply stopping by to say &#8220;hello&#8221; and cheer a team on!  Our first fundraiser we did was a spaghetti feed, for our employees here at PNWT. We were overwhelmed by the support which helped us to raise $225!</p>
<p style="text-align: left;"> <a href="http://main.acsevents.org/site/TR?pg=team&amp;fr_id=38733&amp;team_id=1138955"><img class="alignnone  wp-image-121" title="photo 2" src="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/photo-2-225x300.jpg" alt="" width="225" height="277" /></a>  <a href="http://main.acsevents.org/site/TR?pg=team&amp;fr_id=38733&amp;team_id=1138955"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-122" title="photo 1" src="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/photo-1-300x225.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="225" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: left;">We look forward to sharing this amazing experience with all of you! Please see below the link I have posted if you would like to read additional information on the organization, ways to donate, and gaining a first hand look into our journey as we face the fight to finding a cure. Click the following link to view our Relay for Life Team Page! <a title="Visit our Relay For Life Team Page!" href="http://main.acsevents.org/site/TR?pg=team&amp;fr_id=38733&amp;team_id=1138955">http://main.acsevents.org/site/TR?pg=team&amp;fr_id=38733&amp;team_id=1138955</a></p>
<p><a href="http://main.acsevents.org/site/TR?pg=team&amp;fr_id=38733&amp;team_id=1138955"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-123 alignleft" title="untitled" src="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/untitled.jpg" alt="" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
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		<title>Inside look at our Customer Service Department&#8230;</title>
		<link>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/04/18/inside-look-at-our-customer-service-department/</link>
		<comments>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/04/18/inside-look-at-our-customer-service-department/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Apr 2012 23:45:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kelsey Kilen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/?p=116</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By Andrea Rieland,  PNWT Customer Service /Market Research Specialist Pacific Northwest Title’s Customer Service department is dedicated to excellence. We strive to make sure we cater to the needs of our clients and customers. We offer a variety of products to help people with their informational needs on real estate property. Interested in a particular [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><code></code>By Andrea Rieland,  PNWT Customer Service /Market Research Specialist</p>
<p>Pacific Northwest Title’s Customer Service department is dedicated to excellence. We strive to make sure we cater to the needs of our clients and customers. We offer a variety of products to help people with their informational needs on real estate property. Interested in a particular property? Have one of us put together a Listing Pack for you. This will provide you with all the basic information such as property details, tax information, short plats or boundary line adjustments, current deeds, and plat maps on any particular property inKitsapCounty. We can also provide you with septic records, well reports, and CC&amp;R’s. Have a new listing? Give us a call and we can open up Preliminary Title for you. We can also provide you with a customized Homebook personalized for your listing. This provides you with all the information on your property and area such as, demographics, utilities, school districts, and various recreation aroundKitsapCounty. No matter what your need is, big or small, Pacific Northwest Title’s Customer Service team is devoted to fulfilling those needs with precision and a speedy turn around rate. Give us a call, send us a fax, shoot us an email, we would love the opportunity to provide you with everything you need.</p>
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		<title>Do you know some of the benefits of doing business with PNWT?</title>
		<link>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/04/11/do-you-know-some-of-the-benefits-of-doing-business-with-pnwt/</link>
		<comments>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/04/11/do-you-know-some-of-the-benefits-of-doing-business-with-pnwt/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 11 Apr 2012 18:33:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Kelsey Kilen</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Community Involvement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Escrow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Industry News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kitsap Title & Escrow Companies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Real Estate Services]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Title & Escrow]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Title Insurance]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/?p=109</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Bank-Marketing-Push-Social-Media.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-110" title="Bank Marketing Push-Social Media" src="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Bank-Marketing-Push-Social-Media.jpg" alt="" width="612" height="792" /></a></p>
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		<title>How do you pay it forward?</title>
		<link>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/04/05/how-do-you-pay-it-forward/</link>
		<comments>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/04/05/how-do-you-pay-it-forward/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Apr 2012 16:22:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Lori Bullard</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Community Involvement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blood Drives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Community Involement]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Food Drives]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kitsap Community Resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kitsap Humane Society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[March of Dimes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pacific Northwest Title]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/?p=104</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Many people like the thought of community support and charity donations but are sometimes not sure of how to contribute or life’s distractions get in their way and all good intentions go by the wayside. By doing business with Pacific Northwest Title, a company  who&#8217;s dedicated to supporting our local community, you take part in [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/mens-jeans-cut.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-105" title="Jeans Friday" src="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/mens-jeans-cut.jpg" alt="" width="533" height="354" /></a></p>
<p>Many people like the thought of community support and charity donations but are sometimes not sure of how to contribute or life’s distractions get in their way and all good intentions go by the wayside. By doing business with Pacific Northwest Title, a company  who&#8217;s dedicated to supporting our local community, you take part in all of the support we give.  We believe in supporting the communities where we live and work so much so that it&#8217;s written in our company Mission Statement.  Pacific Northwest Title has provided to our local community in many ways, including food drives, blood drives, events for the Humane Society, Kitsap Community Resources, March of Dimes, youth sports, and many other events.  Every month we choose a charity to support and have $5 jeans Fridays . Our employees contribute to the charity  by  paying $5 to wear nice jeans to work. So if you come upon our office and you see the staff in jeans ,   just know that there is a purpose behind it. Also know that when you do business with a local company that supports the community and various charities, you are taking a BIG part in paying it forward! We appreciate your patronage that allows us to continue giving and being an intricate part of the support system for those in need within our great community and industry associations.</p>
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		<title>IMPORTANT FHA DEADLINES</title>
		<link>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/04/04/important-fha-deadlines/</link>
		<comments>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/04/04/important-fha-deadlines/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Apr 2012 17:33:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Julie Cooper</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Industry News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FHA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FHA Deadlines]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FHA Purchase]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FHA Refiance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Premiums]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Streamline]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/?p=98</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&#160; VERY IMPORTANT FHA DEADLINES!!!  With the pending changes to the FHA Premiums here are some very important dates and deadlines to remember  (Note:  all changes are based on the case number assignment date***)… &#160; For ALL FHA Purchase and Standard FHA Refinance transactions, OR for Streamline transactions with previous insurance endorsements AFTER 5/31/09, please [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><img class="aligncenter" title="deadline" src="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/deadline-300x300.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="300" /></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">VERY IMPORTANT FHA DEADLINES!!!</span></strong>  With the pending changes to the FHA Premiums here are some <span style="text-decoration: underline;">very important dates and deadlines</span> to remember<br />
 (Note:  all changes are based on the <span style="text-decoration: underline;">case number assignment date</span>***)…</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<ul>
<li>For ALL <span style="text-decoration: underline;">FHA Purchase</span> and <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Standard FHA Refinance</span> transactions, <strong>OR</strong> for <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Streamline transactions with previous insurance endorsements AFTER 5/31/09,</span> please be SURE your case numbers are assigned <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline;">ON OR BEFORE April 6<sup>th</sup></span></strong>(as April 9<sup>th</sup> is the new “on or after” date) meaning these loans will need to be <span style="text-decoration: underline;">fully submitted next week</span> to avoid the increased Up Front and Monthly premiums.***</li>
<li>For ALL <span style="text-decoration: underline;">FHA Streamline transactions with previous insurance endorsements ON OR BEFORE 05/31/09</span> please be SURE your case numbers are assigned <strong>ON OR AFTER June 11<sup>th</sup></strong>; to take advantage of the <span style="text-decoration: underline;">decreased</span> Up Front and Monthly premiums (for applicable Streamlines).</li>
</ul>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Why Renters Rule U.S. Housing Market (Part 2)</title>
		<link>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/04/04/why-renters-rule-u-s-housing-market-part-2/</link>
		<comments>http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/2012/04/04/why-renters-rule-u-s-housing-market-part-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Apr 2012 17:20:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Brent Marmon</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/?p=92</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is a article that address inventory levels and their relationship to delinquent mortgages (shadow inventory) and vacant houses not listed for sale and currently held off the market.  The question will be how dramatic these influences will be on housing prices in Kitsap County  read more…  Why Renters Rule U.S. Housing Market (Part 2): [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h1><strong>This is a article that address inventory levels and their relationship to delinquent mortgages (shadow inventory) and vacant houses not listed for sale and currently held off the market.  The question will be how dramatic these influences will be on housing prices in Kitsap County  read more… </strong></h1>
<p><a href="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/rent-vs-buy.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-94" title="rent-vs-buy" src="http://www.pnwtkitsap.com/titleandescrowblog/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/rent-vs-buy-300x200.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="200" /></a></p>
<h1>Why Renters Rule U.S. Housing Market (Part 2): A. Gary Shilling</h1>
<p><cite>By </cite><em>A. Gary Shilling</em><cite> &#8211; </cite><em>Feb 22, 2012</em><cite> </cite></p>
<p>In making my case for continued housing weakness, I’ve emphasized the negative effect of excess inventories on house sales, prices, new construction and just about every other aspect of residential real estate.</p>
<p>In housing, as in every goods-producing sector, excess inventories are the mortal enemy of prices. Lower prices are needed to unload surplus inventory, yet they also lead to the creation of more inventory by anxious sellers. The plight of house sellers and the reluctance of buyers are made worse by the realization that <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/house-prices/">house prices</a> can fall, and are falling for the first time in 70 years.</p>
<p>There are about 2 million excess housing units in the U.S., over and above normal inventory working levels. Before the housing collapse began in 2006, housing starts and completions were volatile but averaged about 1.5 million per year. So a 2 million excess is much more than the previous annual average <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/S15HOME:IND">build</a>.</p>
<p>Furthermore, that excess is rising as homeownership declines as a result of foreclosures, unemployment, inability to meet <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MBAVREFI:IND">mortgage</a> standards or reluctance to own a depreciating asset.</p>
<h2>Inventory Count</h2>
<p>Many people think that house inventories are coming under control. They point to the declines in inventories in relation to sales for new and <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USPHTMOM:IND">existing homes</a>, yet that calculus doesn’t include the 5 million or so housing units with delinquent mortgages or those in <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HOMFCLOS:IND">foreclosure</a>, much less the additional troubled loans that are probable in years ahead.</p>
<p>They also don’t include foreclosed vacant houses that haven’t been listed for sale and vacant units that owners pulled off the market. These vacancies are included in the Census Bureau category called “Held off the market for other reasons,” and they now number 3.6 million, up 1 million from 2006. Falling house prices are associated with declining residential listings as disappointed sellers retreat in hopes of higher prices later.</p>
<p>&#8211; Foreclosures Down: New <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FORLTOTL:IND">foreclosures</a> have dropped considerably in the last two years, but for temporary reasons. RealtyTrac Inc. estimates that there were 804,000 bank repossessions in 2011, down from 1.05 million in 2010. Nevertheless, the <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/federal-housing-administration/">Federal Housing Administration</a>’s seriously delinquent mortgages, often foreclosures in waiting, jumped from 8.2 percent of the loans it guaranteed in June 2011 to 9.6 percent in December.</p>
<p>The federal government encouraged lenders and mortgage servicers to delay <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FORLTOST:IND">foreclosures</a> as modifications were attempted. There was also the voluntary moratorium on foreclosures during the robo-signing flap. This pause continued while the five largest mortgage servicers &#8212; Ally Financial Inc., Bank of America Corp., Citigroup Inc., JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/wells-fargo-%26-co/">Wells Fargo &amp; Co</a>. &#8212; worked on the recent settlement with the federal government and state attorneys general that called for $25 billion in mortgage writedowns and other aid to homeowners.</p>
<p>&#8211; The Logjam Breaks: With that settlement completed, mortgage servicers and lenders will probably step up foreclosures. When they do, the so-called real estate owned &#8212; the properties owned by lenders &#8212; will be dumped on the market with all deliberate speed.</p>
<p>The effect on prices will be dramatic. The <a title="Open Web Site" href="http://www.realtor.org/">National Association of Realtors</a>’ survey for December 2011 found that foreclosure sales were at an average price discount of 22 percent, compared with 20 percent in December 2010. Short sales, in which the lender forgives the difference between the sale price and the mortgage principal, closed 13 percent below market value. As of the second quarter of 2011, RealtyTrac found that real-estate-owned sales were at a huge 40 percent discount while short sale discounts averaged 12 percent.</p>
<p>These discounts tend to drag down the prices of other existing houses and force homebuilders to sell properties below cost in order to compete.</p>
<p>The trigger of renewed foreclosures will probably initiate another big drop in house prices, returning them to the long- term trend identified by <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/robert-shiller/">Robert Shiller</a> of <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/yale-university/">Yale University</a>. This measure of median single-family-house prices is adjusted for general inflation and for the tendency of houses to get bigger over time and therefore more expensive.</p>
<p>With these two corrections, prices in 1990 were about the same as they were a century earlier. Then came the bubble, followed by collapse, but it still will take a 22 percent decline to return <a title="Open Web Site" href="http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/21279/1q11POSummary.xls">prices</a> to the flat long-term trend that prevailed between 1890 and 2000. Because corrections often overshoot on the downside, our forecast of a further 20 percent decline may be conservative. That would bring the total peak-to- trough decline to 46 percent.</p>
<p>&#8211; Spreading Effects: That further drop would have devastating effects. The <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FREEMEW:IND">equity</a> of the average homeowner with a mortgage has already dropped to 17 percent, from almost 50 percent in the early 1980s, due to home-equity withdrawal and falling prices. An additional 20 percent price decline would push homeowner equity into single digits with few <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MBAVREFI:IND">borrowers</a> having any appreciable equity left. It would also boost the percentage of mortgages that are underwater to 40 percent, from the current 22 percent, according to my calculations. The existing underwater loans have already created a $750 billion gap between mortgage principals and house values, according to CoreLogic Inc. The negative effects on <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/consumer-spending/">consumer spending</a> as well as mortgages and mortgage-backed derivatives would be substantial.</p>
<p>&#8211; How Long?: A principal reason that median single-family- <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/home-prices/">home prices</a> are likely to fall an additional 20 percent is that it will take years to work through the excess house inventory, giving plenty of time for surplus units to depress values. I expect housing starts and completions, now about 650,000 at annual rates, to average 700,000 annually in future years. About 300,000 of those will replace housing units that are torn down or converted to other uses. So the net supply is about 400,000.</p>
<p>The demand side is determined by net <a title="Open Web Site" href="http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/hh1.xls">household formation</a>. Contrary to popular belief, household formation isn’t closely correlated with population, at least not in a cyclical time frame. By definition, a household is one or more people occupying a separate dwelling unit. So all the forces that make people want to rent or buy &#8212; house prices, unemployment and mortgage standards &#8212; play a role.</p>
<p>Household formation is about as volatile as housing starts and homeownership rates. It surged a decade ago when owning houses was the route to quick wealth; it dropped as prices collapsed. In the boom days when house prices increased 10 percent a year, a homeowner with a 5 percent down payment made a cool 200 percent on his investment each year, neglecting mortgage interest, maintenance and taxes. And, as a bonus, that person had a place to live rent-free.</p>
<p>&#8211; Annual Absorption: Household formation in the fourth quarter of 2011 was 659,000 at annual rates. Over the last decade, it has averaged about 900,000, a number that seems reasonable in years ahead. Note, however, that this number may be on the high side if significant doubling up reduces household formation. Demand of 900,000 and net supply of 400,000 per year, as discussed earlier, will absorb 500,000 of the excess inventory annually. So the 2 million surplus of housing units I’ve identified will take four years to work off.</p>
<p>That would extend the <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/bear-market/">bear market</a> in housing to 2015, a full 10 years after it started.</p>
<p>One of the biggest contributors to this lengthy resolution is that Americans, armed with first-hand experience of falling prices, are beginning to separate their abodes and their investments. In the days when owners thought house values never fell, they bought the <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/AFFD:IND">biggest homes</a> they could finance. They now know otherwise. Further weakness in the prices of single-family houses and condos due to the depressing effects of excess inventories will add fuel to the fire.</p>
<p>Contrary to general belief, a <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/HOMEAFFR:IND">single-family house</a>, excluding the effects of increasing size and general inflation, has been a flat investment for more than a century. Such properties provide a place to live, but that value is offset, at least in part, by maintenance, taxes, utilities, real estate commissions and other costs. Furthermore, even with the tax deductibility of mortgage interest, renting a single-family house or apartment is cheaper than owning, absent price appreciation. This trend will accelerate in the years of deflation I foresee, when nominal house prices will probably fall on average.</p>
<p>The separation of abodes from investments should work to the advantage of rentals in future years, as it has since the housing bubble burst in 2006.</p>
<p>I’m not suggesting that Americans will give up on single- family owner-occupied housing. That ambition is too deeply embedded in our culture. But many will be more inclined to rent, including empty-nesters who decide to unload their suburban money pits, especially because their homes are falling in price.</p>
<p>Young couples may decide that because houses are no longer a great investment, there’s no reason to strain their financial, physical and emotional resources to buy big, expensive ones as soon as possible. They’ll stay in rental apartments a bit longer and wait until their children are of the age that a single- family house makes sense.</p>
<p>Retiring postwar <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/baby-boomers/">baby boomers</a> &#8212; those who aren’t locked into underwater mortgages &#8212; are also likely to rent as they separate their investments from their abodes.</p>
<p>&#8211; Single or Multifamily?: I’ve made the case for about 4 million new renters in the next five years or so. But will they rent apartments or single-family houses?</p>
<p>Investors are buying foreclosed and other housing units, most of them single-family. Some did so in 2010, when the new homeowner tax credit briefly raised prices. They expected to flip them promptly, but instead became landlords as prices resumed their decline. Nevertheless, the interest of investors, who are often all-cash buyers, persists. The <a title="Open Web Site" href="http://www.realtor.org/research/research/housinginx">Realtors</a>’ association reported that in December 2011, 31 percent of all existing house sales were for cash, 21 percent went to investors and 31 percent to first-time homebuyers.</p>
<p>For investors, however, managing single-family houses is challenging. An apartment usually has one or two walls exposed to the weather, but a single-family house has four plus a yard to maintain and a roof that can leak.</p>
<p>&#8211; Apartment Building: Even as investors are buying single- family foreclosed <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/ETSLTOTL:IND">houses</a>, rising apartment rents and declining vacancies have spawned a miniboom in multifamily housing starts, albeit from close to a zero base. Furthermore, some of the growth may be in anticipation of demand from new retirees. Multifamily completions have yet to reflect this trend because it takes about 12 to 18 months to finish an apartment building.</p>
<p>Supply will probably continue to be augmented by conversions of unsold condos to rental apartments. Will multifamily housing soon become more overbuilt and end the increase in rentals and decrease in vacancy rates?</p>
<p>Those in the industry say that until recently, multifamily developers have been cautious. Tight financing has been one reason, with lenders providing 50 percent to 60 percent of the financing, compared with 80 percent in the salad days of 2006. Also, developers, accustomed to 8 percent to 10 percent capitalization rates, are reluctant to accept today’s returns of 4 percent to 5 percent. And banks are hesitant to lend to developers with bad records and favor borrowers with fortresslike balance sheets.</p>
<p>In addition. <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/FNM:US">Fannie Mae (FNM)</a> and <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NMCMFUS:IND">Freddie Mac (NMCMFUS)</a> have shied away from multifamily housing after getting stuck with bad apartment loans they bought in 2007 and 2008 as private lenders withdrew. The agencies’ share of multifamily loan purchases leaped to 85 percent in 2009, from 29 percent two years earlier. By 2009, they owned or guaranteed 40 percent of the $325 billion <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MBAVBASC:IND">multifamily mortgage market</a>.</p>
<p>&#8211; Slow Start: According to Reis Inc., a New York-based commercial real estate research company, less than 40,000 new multifamily units were finished in 2011, the lowest number in 30 years. In 2012, Reis expects 72,000 to 85,000 new units. Even with robust apartment demand, net absorption &#8212; the surplus of demand over new supply &#8212; fell to 153,000 units in 2011 from 225,000 in 2010. In October of last year, the <a title="Open Web Site" href="http://www.nmhc.org/">National Multi- Family Housing Council</a>, a trade group, reported that its National Tightness Index was 56, down from 82 in July and a peak of 90 in April. A reading above 50 indicates that markets are tightening.</p>
<p>My industry contact indicates that conditions justify apartment-building in <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPCS20Y%25:IND">some markets</a>, such as <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/los-angeles/">Los Angeles</a>, <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/san-francisco/">San Francisco</a>, <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/new-york/">New York</a>, <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/boston/">Boston</a>, <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/chicago/">Chicago</a> and <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/washington/">Washington</a>, where capitalization rates of about 5 percent for Class A buildings prevail. In many other areas &#8212; such as Detroit and <a href="http://topics.bloomberg.com/cleveland/">Cleveland</a> &#8212; rents don’t justify new construction and capitalization rates of 6 percent to 7 percent for existing apartment buildings are the rule.</p>
<p>On balance, lender caution will probably curtail any developer zeal to overbuild rental-apartment buildings for a number of years, at least in most cities.</p>
<p>&#8211; Single-Family/Apartment Split: It’s difficult to estimate exactly how the 3.9 million net new renters I forecast through 2016 will be split between rental apartment dwellers and renters of surplus single-family homes, but I will venture some projections. The return of the rental vacancy rate to its earlier norm of 7.6 percent would provide about 750,000 units. An additional 1.5 million would result from an increase of multifamily starts and completions to the earlier norm of 300,000 per year, from the recent annual rates of 200,000. That would leave 1.7 million to be supplied from single-family rentals.</p>
<p>These projections are in line with my estimate that the 2 million excess inventories would be eliminated over the next four years. This consistency suggests that in four or five years, the housing market will return to normal, with the ownership rate back to its 64 percent norm and 3.9 million new rentals supplied by the elimination of excess inventories as well as the return of multifamily starts and completions to the earlier 300,000 annual rate.</p>
<p>Single-family starts and completions in this scenario would continue at current depressed levels of about 400,000 per year, but the elimination of 1.7 million single-family units in excess inventory by converting them to rentals would relieve the downward pressure on prices.</p>
<p>&#8211; Only Projections: These numbers, however, reflect plausible but uncertain assumptions. A lower homeownership rate than the 64 percent average is possible now that Americans know house prices can and do fall. If so, more single-family houses would probably be converted to rentals and apartment construction could be stronger. If more people double up, household formation will be weaker and it will take longer to work off excess inventories, unless weaker <a title="Get Quote" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/NHSLTOT:IND">new residential construction</a> provides an offset.</p>
<p>In any event, excess house inventory, over and above normal working levels, will be gradually worked off over the next four or five years by new household formation. But about 4 million of the 4.5 million increase in households will be renters of apartments or rental single-family houses.</p>
<p>(A. Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling &amp; Co. and author of “The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation.” The opinions expressed are his own. <a title="Open Web Site" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-22/why-renters-rule-u-s-housing-market-part-1-a-gary-shilling.html">Read Part 1</a> of the series.)</p>
<p>Read more opinion online from Bloomberg View.</p>
<p>To contact the writer of this article: A. Gary Shilling at <a href="mailto:insight@agaryshilling.com">insight@agaryshilling.com</a>.</p>
<p>To contact the editor responsible for this article: Max Berley at <a title="Send E-mail" href="mailto:mberley@bloomberg.net">mberley@bloomberg.net</a>.</p>
<p>®2012 BLOOMBERG L.P. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.</p>
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